Choice is more important than prediction



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Choice is more important than prediction

Yesterday there was a relatively large range of rebound prices, 4 days ago I wrote an analysis, when the article wrote: "from the paper strength, short can be rolled long. But as we all know, war is never an empty talk, otherwise there would not be so many classics of the weak defeating the strong. Looking back to November 2018 and April 2019, the consequences of early entry were dire. "

As we saw today, if you choose to short when all kinds of predictions are very much expected to fall, the consequences are terrible, unless you are a disciplined trader who knows how to stop losses. But I've seen too many people in the past, in this case stick with it, and a lot of people end up blowing up.

Prediction is necessary because we need to prepare in advance. However, the basis of prediction is to get rid of subjective judgment and make an objective analysis of possible future results with known objective factors. Make multiple plans so that you don't panic when an unexpected situation arises.


At the trading level, I think the choice is bigger than the prediction.

Many people are not analysts and do not know how to predict the future, but they are good performers who can grasp the opportunity as soon as it appears. I think such traders are the winners in the market.


Strategy: I think the bull here easy to defend not easy to attack, but ultimately the main force or choose to take the risk.

We look at the bullish and bearish contrast. At present, bulls are supported at the trend line and have ma6 and ma18. Macd also has a bullish trend .

The bears use ma36 as a defense, with a downtrend line above, which will be an important defense area for the bears.

Next we want to look to stay on the sidelines, to see the final result is to lure the enemy deep, or long found the weakness of the short, beat the short.


Spot operation: the hedging should be unwound after the macd develops a bullish trend and the price breaks through ma6.

Contracts: consider the current short cycle is not appropriate to short, but long should set a good stop loss.
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