Is bitcoin bottoming out now?
peter-l 0 62 2019.10.20 12:00
Recently, I have seen many people refer to the trend of the end of 2018 as a reference. In fact, I made a comparison a month ago. But here is not the end of the decline, has seen the bottom?
First of all, I should be a relatively firm bear, because I don't agree with the so-called bull market of bitcoin "halving the reward" on the big logic.
Since 80 percent of bitcoin has been in circulation, and the remaining 40 million untapped bitcoin only accounts for 20 percent, the effect of halving the reward has been greatly reduced compared with the previous one. At the same time, after the bull market in 2017, bitcoin created a very big "bubble", and now the market is in the process of a rational return.
In this period, the possibility of artificial bull market is not without, but the probability is very low. There is a very important logic behind this. In 2018, tens of billions of counterfeit COINS entered the market. They issued new shares based on bitcoin and ethereum .
Over the past year, there has been a spate of such "flight", giving the impression that digital money amounts to a financial ponzi scheme. In those projects, a large number of institutions and large enterprises are trapped, resulting in a serious shortage of incremental funds.
For bitcoin to emerge from the bull market, it needs new money. If the digital currency market cannot solve the problem of artificial manipulation and the situation that there are more exchanges than digital currency, it is impossible to attract formal capital into the market. And for the market hot money, they need to speculation high bitcoin , to the previous people unhook?
They could have made the difference under $20, 000, repeatedly trading contracts and making a profit. So I don't think the market has enough momentum right now to make new highs and get out of the bull market.
It is also based on this logic, I judge from the beginning of the year this is a rebound market, may be a super B wave.
So now the key is, where are we now, down relay? Or has it bottomed out?
Let's compare the trend of the two stages of the market. After breaking the level in November 2018, the market fell 51%, which took 134 trading days. This time, it's down 18% since October, taking 26 trading days.
From time and space, it seems that the conditions for the completion of the bottom construction are not available.
In terms of form, it is currently in a box, and if the box is broken down, there is theoretically about 20% of the drop space.
Now, this probability still exists. Of course, if we maintain a sideways oscillation trend here and stick to the end of December, it is possible to finish the bottom construction here, but we cannot see the signal at present.
Strategy: digital currency is different from traditional financial products, and it is not yet possible to judge the bottom of bitcoin by the standard of value. As we all know, he could go to $100,000, or he could go to zero. Heaven and hell can only be an idea, so we've been suggesting hedging tools for bitcoin investments.
In addition, I think any trading on the left side is not suitable for digital currency. I suggest you wait for the signal on the right side to be sent out before making a decision. For an index whose annual amplitude is over 300%, you will not lose much profit from the right side.