Bitcoin and the Infamous Mercury Retrograde



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Bitcoin and the Infamous Mercury Retrograde

Most people don't know this about me, (and 100% won't care) but I love astrology. The stars, the unknown, the mystery, all shrouded in darkness. I have questions and nobody has the answers. Probably part of the allure, I'd imagine.



I also love Technical Analysis . I don't consider myself amazing by any stretch but I'd like to think I'm a level above wasting anyone's time.

Data. Numbers. Math. Patterns. Time. Theory... I love em all.

This analysis will focus on a period of time that generally happens 3 but sometimes 4 times a year and it has to do with the planet Mercury.

Very quickly, Mercury Retrograde is simply when Mercury passes Earth on its way around the Sun. Because Mercury has an inner track and can complete an orbit in around 88 days, there will be times when Mercury cruises right by Earth. From our view on Earth, it would almost appear as if Mercury is moving backwards.



Don’t take my word for it, look it up yourself if you’re interested but they say that Mercury Retrograde leads to a lot of negative action, specifically regarding expression, communication, technology and other misfortunes including financial disruptions.

It should be said that there are also two weeks before Retrograde and two weeks after Retrograde, give or take, and these are Shadow periods. I’m not going into detail about those as this intro is already far too long.

So, what better way to see what type of affect Mercury Retrograde has on trading Bitcoin then looking at the chart, plotting the retrograde periods and taking a few simple measurements?


I started with 2016 as this should give us enough data to get started with. 2016 had 4 Periods but the last one started in 2016 and ended in 2017.

2016:
January 5 – January 25, 2016
April 28 – May 22, 2016
August 30 – September 22, 2016
Dec 19 2016 – Jan 8, 2017

Below you will see a chart with the 4 periods and their relevant data. This data includes the amount of days, the % gain or lost and the equivalent dollar value of that gain or loss.


2017:
Dec 19, 2016 to Jan 8, 2017
April 9 – May 3, 2017
August 12 – Sept 5, 2017
December 3 – December 22, 2017

Below you will see a chart with the 4 periods and their relevant data. This data includes the amount of days, the % gain or lost and the equivalent dollar value of that gain or loss.


2018:
March 22 – April 15, 2018
July 26 – August 18, 2018
November 16 – December 6

Below you will see a chart with the 3 periods and their relevant data. This data includes the amount of days, the % gain or lost and the equivalent dollar value of that gain or loss.


2019:
March 5 – 28, 2019
July 7 – 31, 2019
October 31 – November 20, 2019

Below you will see a chart with the 3 periods and their relevant data. This data includes the amount of days, the % gain or lost and the equivalent dollar value of that gain or loss.



So, obviously we got some results that seem to be all over the place. A 28% Gain in 2017 but a 38% loss in 2018.
Surely we can find a way to make more sense out of this. Yes, we will add a moving average and then see if we make gains while in up-trending markets and losses while in downtrending markets to give confluence to the idea that maybe Mercury Retrograde goes with the trend.


Below you will see a 200 Simple Moving Average on the Daily chart for overall trend Bias.
Price above the 200 = Uptrend
Price below the 200 = Downtrend

The idea here was to see if the Mercury Retrograde followed the overall trend. As we can see, it's not perfect. We can see trend following more often then it doesn't but no concrete conclusion can be derived from the 200 DMA.

The last one is Neutral because Retrograde starts above the 200 DMA and ends Below the 200 DMA.


This was the longest part of the thesis. I tried a few dozen indicators to see if there was any type of “signal” prior to the Retrograde that could give a good leading indication. Unfortunately, from the Aroon to the Whadda I just could not find something that was 100%. It always came down to the two in 2016 and that rise in 2019. And I really tried a lot. MACD , OBV, MFI , RSI , Stoch , Ichi, even faster MA/EMAs, a few oddball indicators, momentum, etc…


But then it dawned on me. Retrograde. Moon Phases . Huh… Let’s See

New Moon in the Cycle:
2016:
January 5 – January 25, 2016 - Down
April 28 – May 22, 2016 - Down
August 30 – September 22, 2016 - Up
Dec 19 2016 – Jan 8, 2017 - Up

2017:
Dec 19, 2016 to Jan 8, 2017 - REPEAT
April 9 – May 3, 2017 - Up
August 12 – Sept 5, 2017 - Up
December 3 – December 22, 2017 - Up

2018:
March 22 – April 15, 2018 – No New Moon = DOWN
July 26 – August 18, 2018 - Down
November 16 – December 6 – No New Moon = DOWN

2019:
March 5 – 28, 2019 - Up
July 7 – 31, 2019 – No New Moon = DOWN
October 31 – November 20, 2019 – No New Moon = DOWN

So, this is pretty interesting. Not perfect but interesting. When there is No New Moon Present in the Retrograde Cycle - Price ALWAYS declines.

When there is a New Moon present we get 6 up and 3 down. Need to investigate further.


Full Moon in the Cycle:
2016:
January 5 – January 25, 2016 - Down
April 28 – May 22, 2016 - Down
August 30 – September 22, 2016 - Up
Dec 19 2016 – Jan 8, 2017 – No Full Moon = UP

2017:
Dec 19, 2016 to Jan 8, 2017 - REPEAT
April 9 – May 3, 2017 – Up
August 12 – Sept 5, 2017 - No Full Moon = UP
December 3 – December 22, 2017 - Up

2018:
March 22 – April 15, 2018 - Down
July 26 – August 18, 2018 - Down
November 16 – December 6 - Down

2019:
March 5 – 28, 2019 - Up
July 7 – 31, 2019 - Down
October 31 – November 20, 2019 - Down

Another very interesting piece of information. 
When No FULL MOON is present in the cycle, Price goes up. 
In the presence of a Full Moon , price declined 7 to 4. Again, not really great findings here. The more interesting is definitely the lack of presence from a Full Moon .



Both a New and a Full Moon in the Cycle:
2016:
January 5 – January 25, 2016 - Down
April 28 – May 22, 2016 - Down
August 30 – September 22, 2016 - Up
Dec 19 2016 – Jan 8, 2017 – No Full Moon = UP

2017:
Dec 19, 2016 to Jan 8, 2017 - REPEAT
April 9 – May 3, 2017 – Up
August 12 – Sept 5, 2017 - No Full Moon = UP
December 3 – December 22, 2017 - Up

2018:
March 22 – April 15, 2018 – No New Moon = DOWN
July 26 – August 18, 2018 - Down
November 16 – December 6 – No New Moon = DOWN

2019:
March 5 – 28, 2019 - Up
July 7 – 31, 2019 – No New Moon = DOWN
October 31 – November 20, 2019 – No New Moon = DOWN

When we have both a New Moon and a Full Moon , the results are just about Random. 4 Up and 3 Down. I even checked the placement of which moon came first but again, nothing consistent from the 7 Cycles left to look at.


Here is what we do have.

 No New Moon = Price goes down 4 for 4 Cycles
No Full Moon = Price goes up 2 for 2 Cycles

The presence of Both a New Moon and Full Moon = Random 4 Up and 3 Down

The question then becomes, what does this Cycle have or better yet… Not Have.

And therein lies an unforeseen problem. There is a New Moon and on the very last day of the cycle, there is a Full Moon .

Now, depending on where you are in the world, will the Full Moon count when the trading ends on March 9th , 2020 at 00:00 UTC? I suppose that is up to you to decide. If it was a New Moon only, then 2 out of 2 times in the past we had price go up.



Just to really jab the knife in a little deeper… The Full Moon on March 9th , the last day of the upcoming Mercury Retrograde cycle, is a SUPER FULL MOON . It’s considered a SUPERMOON when it is at its closest to EARTH so it will look Bigger and Brighter. There will only be one other Super Full Moon in 2020 it will be April 7th.

Stats:

2016:
January 5 – January 25, 2016
20 Days
-8.60%
Loss of $37.10

April 28 – May 22, 2016
24 Days
-191%
Loss of $8.50

August 30 – September 22, 2016
23 Days
3.75%
Gain of $21.50

Dec 19 2016 – Jan 8, 2017
20 Days
15.87%
Gain of $125.60


2017:
Dec 19, 2016 to Jan 8, 2017
---Same as above---

April 9 – May 3, 2017
24 Days
28.00%
Gain of $331.10

August 12 – Sept 5, 2017
24 Days
21.65%
Gain of $794.40

December 3 – December 22, 2017
19 Days
27.27%
Gain of $2973.10



2018:
March 22 – April 15, 2018
24 Days
-5.81%
Loss of $515.70

July 26 – August 18, 2018
23 Days
-21.61%
Loss of $1764.70

November 16 – December 6
20 Days
-38.37%
Loss of $2139.00


2019:
March 5 – 28, 2019
23 Days
8.48%
Gain of $313.80

July 7 – 31, 2019
24 Days
-10.18%
Loss of $1144.10

October 31 – November 20, 2019
20 Days
-11.79%
Loss of $1080.80

Total UP = 6 Periods
Total Down = 7 Periods
Average Gain when up = 17.50%
Average Loss when down = -14.03%

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